Friday nights are when NBA betting volume spikes. More games, more props, more noise. This is exactly where predictive models matter most.

Tonight’s Pistons vs. Hawks matchup gives us a perfect example of how Rithmm identifies value that sportsbooks often misprice — especially in defensive player props like steals.

The play drawing attention tonight is Dyson Daniels Under 2.5 Steals.

At first glance, this looks like a simple under. But when you look deeper, this is the type of prop where books often rely on reputation instead of probability.

Model vs. Market: Where the Edge Comes From

Rithmm’s player prop model projects Daniels at 1.8 steals tonight. That alone creates separation from the posted line of 2.5, but the real signal shows up when probability is compared.

Rithmm gives this outcome a 70.8% win chance, while the sportsbook’s implied probability sits at just 59.3%. That gap is exactly what triggers a Smart Signal.

A Smart Signal isn’t about trends or gut feel. It’s generated when the model identifies an outcome as much more likely than the odds suggest — and in this case, the difference is large enough to be flagged clearly.

Recent performance supports the model as well. Over his last 10 games, Daniels has gone under this line 70% of the time, averaging 1.9 steals per game. Even in favorable matchups, clearing 3 steals has been the exception, not the norm.

Steals props are volatile by nature, which is why lines like 2.5 often sit in an uncomfortable middle. That volatility creates opportunity when probability is misaligned — and tonight’s data shows that misalignment clearly.

Why Predictive Models Matter on Busy Slates

This is also why Fridays are ideal for using predictive models. The market is busy reacting to narratives, while models stay focused on distribution, likelihood, and pricing.

This is just one NBA prop for tonight. Inside Rithmm, users can explore additional Smart Signals across games, player props, and spreads — or build their own models and let the data do the filtering.

If you’re building a Friday night card, this is the kind of play models are designed to surface.

You can track this play, explore more NBA props, or copy proven models directly inside the Rithmm app before tipoff.

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