Most prop bets come down to a gut read on a single number. The sharper approach is finding where multiple independent signals are pointing the same direction at the same time. Tonight, two separate gold-tier patterns are converging on one MLB pick: Dustin May's hits allowed prop.
St. Louis Cardinals at Pittsburgh Pirates
April 27, 2026 | 10:40 PM ET
Rithmm's models project 4.8 hits allowed for May tonight. The line sits at 5.5. That 0.7-hit gap triggers two distinct patterns, each with a strong track record this MLB season.
Pattern 1: Pitcher Hits Allowed Under at the 5.5 Line. When the line is set at exactly 5.5, the under has gone 32-17 this season. That's a 65.3% win rate with a 19.1% ROI.
Pattern 2: Pitcher Hits Allowed Under When the Team Is Favored. When the pitcher's team enters as a favorite and the model flags the under, it's gone 35-18 this season. That's a 66% win rate with a 13.3% ROI.
Both patterns apply to this game. A line of 5.5 on a pitcher whose team is favored, with Rithmm's model projecting 4.8 hits. That kind of overlap is exactly what the platform was built to surface.
Seven patterns matched this bet in total. Three of them are gold-tier, with the strongest sitting at a 66% win rate on the season. Dustin May pitching at Pittsburgh adds another layer: PNC Park has been a lower-run environment this year, which aligns with what the model is projecting.
This is not a lock. No pick is. But when two independent pattern tracks have each been profitable across 49 and 53 bets respectively, and both land on the same side of the same prop on the same night, that's a meaningful signal worth knowing about.
May's hits allowed prop is in the Rithmm app right now under tonight's Cardinals at Pirates game. Every pick comes with its pattern data and a plain-English breakdown of what the model is detecting, so you know the why behind the pick, not just the pick itself.
