Corbin Carroll Under 1.5 Total Bases: MLB AI Pick for September 2, 2026
Rithmm's predictive models are highlighting value on Arizona Diamondbacks right fielder Corbin Carroll in Wednesday's home matchup against the Philadelphia Phillies. First pitch is 7:40 PM ET. The models project a 59.5% win probability for Carroll to stay Under 1.5 Total Bases at -130 odds, delivering a +3.0% Edge over current market pricing.
Carroll is ice cold into this series. He has stayed Under 1.5 total bases in 8 of his last 10 games, and MLB.com has him at 2-for-26 with a .077 average over his last seven. Yesterday against Philadelphia he finished with 0 total bases (0-for-4, three strikeouts), so the same opponent is back on the mound side of the card with a bat that has already gone quiet. A 1.5 total bases line fails if he only singles once and stays off the extra-base path, which is exactly the quieter profile the models are pricing tonight.
The Rithmm models process multiple specialized signals in parallel, weighing contact quality, plate discipline, and matchup context rather than chasing single-game power spikes. At -130, the market implies about 56.5% on the Under. The models sit at 59.5% win probability with a clear Under lean, and this prop is flagged with Elite Edge on today's slate. The models project 1.1 total bases, a real gap under the 1.5 line, so the projection and the price lean the same way. That is when Edge and shopping both matter. Historically, total bases unders in this Edge band have delivered a 58-30 record, a 65.9% win rate, and a +17.4% return on investment across 88 tracked bets. A wider Elite Edge sample on the same Under side sits at 78-43 with a 64.5% win rate and +13.2% ROI across 121 bets, which keeps the same story intact at a larger sample. The more recent half of that Elite Edge book is running hotter still, and Carroll himself has cashed this style of Under lean multiple times inside the tracked sample.
With a 59.5% model win probability against that implied price, the +3.0% Edge is a clean value band for MLB prop bettors who want the work shown, not a vibe lock. You are not forcing a hot bat under. You are taking a model advantage on a right field bat that has already hit the Under in 8 of his last 10 and posted a 1.1 projection on a 1.5 number. Shop around before you lock it. A few cents off -130 matter when you are laying juice.
To explore more daily MLB prop models and predictive analysis across NFL, NBA, WNBA, MLB, PGA golf, World Cup soccer, college football, and NCAA men's basketball, check out Rithmm's AI MLB picks or visit AI sports picks to test the platform with a 7-day free trial on web, iOS, and Android. Pricing starts on the plans page.
