The Rithmm models are flagging Corbin Carroll Under 1.5 Total Bases tonight as the Arizona Diamondbacks visit the Tampa Bay Rays at Tropicana Field. First pitch is 7:10 PM ET.
Carroll has put together a solid 2026 overall, hitting .279 with 13 home runs and 42 RBIs. The recent stretch, though, tells a quieter story. Over his last seven games, Carroll is batting just .207 with six hits in 29 at-bats. The pop is still there — two of those six hits were home runs — but the contact consistency and on-base production have both cooled off heading into tonight.
The matchup compounds that. Tampa Bay sends Nick Martinez to the mound, a right-hander who has delivered a quality start in five of his last seven outings. Martinez has been one of the more reliable arms in the Rays rotation lately, keeping opponents off the basepaths and limiting extra-base damage. Carroll bats left-handed, and the models do not see a lot of total-base upside against a righty in this form.
There is a specific type of matchup the models have flagged consistently this season involving right fielders and total-base unders. In 24 similar situations tracked, the under has hit 19 times. That is a 79.2 percent win rate. Finding a signal that clean and that consistent is not something that happens every slate.
Tonight's pick: Corbin Carroll Under 1.5 Total Bases at -132.
