It’s Conference Championship Weekend — one of the biggest, most electric slates of the entire college football season.

And while the public dives into headlines, narratives, and rivalry emotion, Rithmm stays locked into pure predictive value.

Today, our high-performing NCAAF Totals Model — which is:
- 211–172 this season (55.1% win rate)
- +4.8% ROI across all totals recommended
- Battle-tested across months of market movement

…is flagging a strong edge on Indiana–Ohio State Over 47.5 (-106).

Let’s break down why the model likes it.

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Featured Championship Weekend Pick  
Indiana @ Ohio State — Over 47.5 (–106)

- Rithmm Model Projection: 53.5 total points  
- Model Win Chance: 66.5%  
- DTM: 29.2% (one of the strongest you’ll see on a Power Five total)  

This is the exact type of spot where our totals model has historically performed best:
- tight spreads  
- mispriced totals in mid-range bands  
- neutral or semi-neutral venues  
- teams with **hidden pace spikes** and exploitable defensive matchups  

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Why Rithmm’s Model Likes the Over

1. Both Teams Trend Toward Higher-Scoring Matchups
- Indiana road totals: 3–0 to the OVER
- Ohio State home totals: 2–1 to the OVER

Both offenses perform better in these environments than their season-long averages suggest.

2. Offensive Output Quietly Supports an Over
Average points per game:
- Indiana: 21.6  
- Ohio State: 31.9  

Total: 53.5 projected points — exactly in line with the model’s forecast.

3. Ohio State Creates Game Scripts That Push Totals Up
Ohio State has:
- explosive drive potential  
- red-zone efficiency advantages  
- a tendency to force opponents into faster pace when trailing  

Their style naturally lifts totals, especially in matchups where the spread doesn’t project a blowout.

4. Indiana’s Offense Is Better Than the Market Thinks
Indiana has been quietly efficient:
- better scoring on the road  
- improved production against top defensive units  
- strong early-down success rates in recent games  

This is the type of offense that books undervalue — and the type our model tends to catch.

5. Neutral-Site Environment Removes Variability
Lucas Oil Stadium:
- fast track  
- ideal passing environment  
- clean kicking conditions  

Fast turf + clean indoor conditions = points.

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Why This Spot Fits the Model So Well

Rithmm’s totals model thrives on:
- market overreactions  
- stale numbers  
- underpriced pace  
- teams with inconsistent week-to-week defensive output  

This game checks all four boxes.

It’s also exactly the type of matchup where public perception tilts UNDER due to “Big Ten football” stereotypes — while the underlying data screams OVER.

And because the model is:
- strong this season (211–172)
- consistently beating closing lines  
- performing best in mid-sized totals  

…this Over 47.5 sits right in its wheelhouse.

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Track All Championship Weekend Totals in Rithmm

Open the app today to see:
- real-time model projections  
- green-star recommended edges  
- win probabilities  
- DTM rankings  
- line movement and value shifts  

College Football Championship Weekend is packed — let the model find the value for you.

Rithmm: Clear Predictions. Backed by AI. Built for You.

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