Tonight the Indiana Fever travel to Phoenix to face the Mercury, and Rithmm's models are pointing to one prop worth watching: Aliyah Boston Under 3.5 Assists at -122.
Boston is averaging 3.0 assists per game this season, meaning the line of 3.5 sits a full half-step above where she lands on average. She has gone under this number in six of her last ten games, and the models are projecting 3.3 assists tonight, putting the probability of the under at 56 percent.
The context heading into tonight adds another layer. Boston sat out Wednesday's loss to the Los Angeles Sparks with a lower right leg injury. She has been cleared to play, but coming back on a back-to-back, off a rest day, typically limits how aggressively a player pushes their workload in the first half. Caitlin Clark is also out tonight with a back injury. Without Clark orchestrating the offense, the Fever's ball movement looks different, and Boston will be leaned on more as a scorer and rebounder than a distributor.
When Rithmm's models look back at WNBA assists props set at this exact line, the data strongly favors the under. The historical record on this number checks in at 22-9, a 71 percent win rate with a return on investment of over 35 percent. That kind of consistency across a meaningful sample is what gives the models confidence in a spot like this.
The Rithmm pick: Aliyah Boston Under 3.5 Assists tonight against the Phoenix Mercury. Tip-off is at 10:00 PM ET.
