The Rithmm models have been tracking a specific pattern in MLB pitcher props all season, and it is pointing clearly at two starts on today's slate. When the models' predicted hits allowed sits just slightly below the market line, those unders have come in at a 66% clip with strong positive returns across the season. That signal is live in two games today, and both pitchers have the profile to deliver.
The first pick is Casey Mize of the Detroit Tigers, UNDER 4.5 Hits Allowed at -120 against the New York Yankees. Mize has been one of the more quietly impressive arms in the American League this year. His 2.58 ERA understates how well he has been suppressing contact, with an average exit velocity of 87.5 mph and a wOBA of just .269 against him in 2026. He also has a real history of locking up this particular opponent. Last season Mize went 2-0 with a 2.55 ERA in two starts against New York, and his career line against the Yankees sits at 2-1 with a 3.63 ERA. The models are seeing value on the under here, and the matchup backs it up.
The second pick is Shane McClanahan of the Tampa Bay Rays, UNDER 4.5 Hits Allowed at -119 against the Kansas City Royals. McClanahan has been elite at home this season, posting a 5-0 record and a 2.05 ERA in six starts at Tropicana Field. He is the Rays' wins leader and has allowed one run or fewer in three of his four June outings. The models are flagging the same pattern backing Mize's start, and pitching at home against Kansas City gives McClanahan every advantage to keep it clean through his time in the game.
Both picks are available now inside the Rithmm app. Start your free 7-day trial and see every prop the models are flagging on today's full slate.
